Calculate your FIRE number — the day your capital covers your life.
A precise calculator for the four flavors of FIRE — built on the 4% rule, monthly compounding, inflation-adjusted real returns, and your own portfolio composition.
| Asset | Allocation | Return |
|---|
Reference: trailing CAGR by horizon
Stocks & ETFs
| Index / ETF | 10y | 20y | 30y | 40y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
VOOS&P 500 | 12.5 | 10.5 | 10.0 | 11.0 |
VTITotal US | 12.0 | 10.3 | 10.5 | 10.8 |
QQQNasdaq 100 | 17.0 | 14.5 | 10.5 | 12.5 |
VTTotal World | 9.5 | 8.0 | 8.5 | n/a |
VXUSIntl ex-US | 5.8 | 5.5 | 6.5 | n/a |
SCHDDividend | 10.7 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Bonds
| Index / ETF | 10y | 20y | 30y | 40y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
BNDUS Aggregate | 1.5 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 6.5 |
VGLTLong Treasury | -1.0 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 7.5 |
TIPTIPS | 2.5 | 3.8 | n/a | n/a |
BNDXIntl Bond | 2.1 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
VTCCorp. Bonds | 2.2 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 7.0 |
Cash & equivalents
| Vehicle | 10y | 20y | 30y | Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
SGOVTreasury bills | 2.0 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 4.2 |
VMFXXMoney market | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 4.4 |
SHY1–3y Treasury | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 4.0 |
| HYSA average | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 4.0 |
Other / alternatives
| Index / ETF | 10y | 20y | 30y | 40y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
VNQUS REITs | 6.0 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 10.0 |
VNQIIntl REITs | 4.5 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
GLDGold | 8.5 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 4.5 |
DBCCommodities | 3.0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | n/a |
Approximate nominal CAGR (%) through 2025–2026. Where an ETF's history is shorter than the period, the underlying index is used as a proxy. Cash "Now" is current annual yield. Past returns are not forecasts — Vanguard's forward 10-year assumptions sit several points below these trailing figures.
What is a FIRE calculator?
A FIRE calculator estimates how much you need to invest to reach Financial Independence, Retire Early (FIRE) — the point where the safe withdrawal from your portfolio fully covers your living expenses. This tool projects your net worth with monthly compounding and inflation-adjusted real returns, then compares it against your personal FIRE number.
Your FIRE number is your annual expenses divided by a safe withdrawal rate. The 4% rule is the common baseline, which puts the target at roughly 25× your yearly spending — lower the rate for a safer, larger target, or raise it to reach independence sooner.
The calculator models four distinct paths to financial independence:
- Lean FIRE — a minimalist retirement on about 75% of today's expenses, reached years earlier.
- Regular FIRE — the standard target, a portfolio that covers your full current lifestyle.
- Fat FIRE — a comfortable retirement on roughly 150% of expenses, with no lifestyle compromise.
- Coast FIRE — the moment your invested capital will compound to your goal with no further contributions.
Six rungs of freedom from friction.
Each level of net worth removes a specific category of money anxiety from your daily life. Knowing your rung clarifies what to optimize for next.
Optimize for memories, not heirs.
Most retirees die with more money than they began retirement with. Perkins argues the goal isn't to maximize net worth at death — it's to convert capital into experiences while you're still able to enjoy them. Below: your humpback curve, sustainable spend, and memory-dividend buckets by decade.
The calculator below treats your portfolio at retirement as an annuity that pays out evenly in real terms until your planning endpoint, with the bequest left intact.
Memory dividend buckets
The 1% that quietly eats a third of your retirement.
Bogle called it "the tyranny of compounding costs." A fund's expense ratio looks trivial — a fraction of a percent — but charged every year on your entire balance, it compounds against you exactly the way returns compound for you. Drag the fee and watch the gap open.
Typical expense ratios: index ETFs 0.03–0.10%, active mutual funds 0.50–1.00%, and advisor "assets under management" fees 1.00%+ layered on top. This tab uses your Calculator inputs for age, capital, contribution, and portfolio return.
The most expensive years are the ones you skip.
Compounding rewards time far more than timing. Every year you delay starting is a year stripped off the front of the curve — where the runway for growth is longest. See what waiting costs, and what it would take to catch up.
During the delay your existing capital sits parked — no growth, no contributions. When you finally start, the same plan runs, but with fewer years of compounding. This tab uses your Calculator inputs.
Everything that matters, on one page.
The four archetypes
The mechanics
- FIRE numberAnnual expenses ÷ SWR
- 25× ruleAnnual expenses × 25 (at a 4% SWR)
- Real return(1 + nominal) ÷ (1 + inflation) − 1
- Monthly compounding(1 + annual)^(1/12) − 1 per month
- Coast FIREFIRE number ÷ (1 + real)^years
- Sustainable spendPV × r ÷ (1 − (1 + r)⁻ⁿ)
Savings rate vs. time to FIRE
| Savings rate | Years to FIRE | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | ~51 yrs | A full career — standard advice. |
| 25% | ~32 yrs | Disciplined; realistic for many. |
| 50% | ~17 yrs | The classic Mr. Money Mustache zone. |
| 75% | ~7 yrs | Lean FIRE territory — rare but possible. |
Assumes a 5% real return; savings rate is the dominant lever in the first decade.
Two ideas worth borrowing
- Wealth LadderSix net-worth tiers, each removing a category of money friction. See the Wealth Ladder tab.
- Die With ZeroConvert capital into experiences while you can use them, rather than dying overfunded. See the Die With Zero tab.
Further reading
- The Simple Path to Wealth Index-fund simplicity
- The Wealth Ladder Six rungs of net-worth freedom
- Die With Zero Optimize for memory, not heirs
- Your Money or Your Life Trading life energy for money
- The Psychology of Money Behavioral foundations
- Trinity Study Origin of the 4% rule